Cambridge Forecast Group Blog

Program

08 h 15

Welcome of participants

08 h 45

Opening speech

Christian NOYER,
Governor, Banque de France

09 h 00

Stylised facts of globalisation and world inflation

Globalisation, in particular the entry of new players on the world stage, seems to have had a direct impact on world inflation that is both disinflationary (manufactured products) and inflationary (raw materials and food products). What is the relative magnitude of these two dynamics? Is the Great Moderation here to stay?

Further points : prospects for trade integration and international trade rounds – world output gap and the Phillips curve – global vs. idiosyncratic nature of shocks – population trends in emerging and developed economies and their common impact on potential growth.

Chairperson

Jean-Claude TRICHET,
President, European Central Bank

Speaker

Kenneth S. ROGOFF,
Professor, Harvard University

Discussants

Richard W. FISHER,
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

John LIPSKY,
First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund

Philippe MARTIN,
Professor, University of Paris 1

11 h 00

Globalisation and the determinants of domestic inflation

Globalisation also seems to have had indirect effects on domestic inflation, whose magnitude is subject to debate. What has been the impact of globalisation on productivity and profit margins, wage setting, the choice of the exchange-rate regime and the exchange-rate pass-through ?

Further points: flattening of national Phillips curves – traded/non traded goods and services – inflation persistence in the event of a shock – role of structural rigidities in labour and goods markets and the impact of globalisation on structural reforms – offshoring

Chairperson

Jean-Pierre ROTH,
President, Swiss national bank
Chairman, Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements

Speaker

William R. WHITE,
Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department,
Bank for International Settlements

Discussants

Martin REDRADO,
Governor, Banco Central de la República Argentina

Janet YELLEN,
President, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

YI Gang,
Vice-Governor, People’s Bank of China

13 h 45

Financial globalisation, growth and asset prices (Round table)

While financial globalisation has had positive effects on economic growth, it may also have led to the emergence of new risks for financial stability, related in particular to the sequencing of capital account liberalisation, the impact of abundant liquidity on asset prices and the development of complex financial instruments. What lessons can be learnt from the recent financial turmoil?

Further points : gap between Great Moderation and financial volatility – risk assessment and transfer -globalisation as a catalyst for structural reforms of financial systems, capital flows, development of domestic financial markets and patterns of growth, sequencing of financial reforms – cooperation between regulators and the need for enhanced transparency – risk of the transmission of financial crises.

Chairperson

Nout WELLINK,
Governor, De Nederlandsche Bank
Chairman, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision

Panellists

Alan BOLLARD,
Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Arvind KRISHNAMURTHY,
Professor, Northwestern University- Kellogg School of Management

Yaga Venugopal REDDY,
Governor, Reserve Bank of India

Hélène REY,
Professor, London Business School

Martin WOLF,
Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

16 h 00

Implications for the conduct of monetary policy

What are the implications of the first three sessions for the conduct of monetary policy? In particular, should globalisation lead to an adjustment in central banks’ price-stability objective, their economic and monetary analyses or their reaction to exchange-rate developments ?

Further points : price-stability objective: core vs. headline inflation, target level, target horizon – choice between inflation and exchange-rate targeting (in particular for ERM II countries) – attention paid by central banks to global capacity utilisation, terms of trade, asset prices, money and credit – disinflation cost in the event of deviation.

Chairperson

Guillermo ORTIZ,
Governor, Banco de México

Speaker

John B. TAYLOR,
Professor, Stanford University

Discussants

Éric CHANEY,
Chief Economist for Europe, Morgan Stanley

Donald L. KOHN,
Vice Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Jürgen STARK,
Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

17 h 45

Concluding remarks

Jacob A. FRENKEL,
Chairman, Group of Thirty
Vice-Chairman, American International Group Inc.

Final Speech

Christian NOYER,
Governor, Banque de France