“GLOBAL IMBALANCES”: BUNDESBANK DISCUSSION PAPER

February 11, 2011 at 5:04 am | Posted in Economics, Financial, Germany, Globalization, History, Research | Leave a comment

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Bundesbank Discussion Paper

Bundesbank Research Centre

Newsletter Forschungszentrum Bundesbank
Fri 2/11/11

The Bundesbank Research Centre has released a new Discussion Paper
(No 01/2011 Series 1).

Author/s:
Mathias Hoffmann
Michael Krause
Thomas Laubach

Title:
Long-run growth expectations and "global imbalances"
Abstract:
This paper examines to what extent the build-up of "global imbalances"
since the mid-1990s can be explained in a 
purely real open-economy DSGEmodel in 
which agents' perceptions of long-run growth are based on filtering observed changes in productivity.
We show that long-run growth estimates 
based on filtering U.S. productivity data co-move 
strongly with long-horizon survey expectations. 
By simulating the model in which agents filter data 
on U.S. productivity growth, we closely match the 
U.S. current account evolution. Moreover, with 
household preferences that control the wealth effect 
on labor supply, we can generate output movements 
in line with the data.

http://vo5555.newsletter.bundesbank.de/servlet/rd?l=Diskussionspapiere-JOKA-PJN1-M7DJ-ONL3-NWSL168

+ 01: Deutsche Bundesbank
Forschungszentrum
Research Centre
Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14
60431 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
+ 02: Contact
presse-information@bundesbank.de

Bundesbank Discussion Paper‏

Bundesbank Research Centre

Newsletter Forschungszentrum Bundesbank
http://vo5555.newsletter.bundesbank.de/servlet/rd?l=Diskussionspapiere-JOKA-PJN1-M7DJ-ONL3-NWSL168

Fri 2/11/11

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