CAMBRIDGE FORECAST GROUP ESSAY: “CIVETS” AND “BRICS” AS THE NEXT LOCOMOTIVE OR ENGINE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY?

June 30, 2010 at 12:46 am | Posted in Brazil, China, Development, Economics, Financial, Globalization, History, India, Research, Russia, Third World, World-system | Leave a comment

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CIVETS:

Colombia Indonesia Vietnam Egypt Turkey and South

Africa

Globalization of the Economy

Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa will take over as the new BRICs, as Brazil, Russia, India and China were dubbed a decade ago.

Last decade, the term BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) was used to refer to emerging markets with high growth potential.

In 2010, six more countries have been included in the rank of these emerging markets, and the group has been designated as CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa). Emerging markets are expected to grow three times faster than developed countries this year and are driving global recovery.

Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa will take over as the new BRICs, as Brazil, Russia, India and China were dubbed a decade ago.

“Each has a very bright future,” HSBC CEO Michael Geoghegan said of the CIVETS, named after the cat-like animals found in some of the countries. “Each has large, young, growing population. Each has a diverse and dynamic economy. And each, in relative terms, is politically stable.”

Geoghegan, whose bank is the biggest in Europe but is targeting emerging markets for growth, said the growing importance of countries also including Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey will continue the power shift away from traditional economic strongholds of Europe and the United States.

Emerging markets will grow three times faster than developed countries this year and are driving global recovery, he said.

“Within three years, for the first time, the economic firepower of emerging markets will overtake the developed world, measured by purchasing power parity. It’s a defining moment.”

The size of the emerging market middle class will swell to 1.2 billion people by 2030, from 250 million in 2000, he said.

That bodes well for financial services, as households tend to open bank accounts and ask for other products when income reaches about $10,000, Geoghegan said.

“Many Chinese households are about to hit this level. They number about 33 million now. But they will quadruple to 155 million by 2014. In India, the change will also be dramatic,” he said.


“Within three years, for the first time, the economic firepower of emerging markets will overtake the developed world, measured by purchasing power parity. It’s a defining moment.”

CIVETS:

Colombia Indonesia Vietnam Egypt Turkey and South

Africa

Globalization of the Economy

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