“NCB MARKET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK MARCH 22 2009”: JEDDAH SAUDI ARABIA

March 23, 2009 at 10:50 am | Posted in Arabs, Economics, Financial, Middle East, Research | Leave a comment

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NCB Market Review and Outlook

– 22 Mar 2009‏

Noel Rotap (n.rotap@alahli.com)

Sun 3/22/09

Dear Readers,

The NCB Market Review and Outlook

In this week’s edition of The NCB Market Review and Outlook, the following topics are explored:

Saudi Macro and Equity Market Contractors’ Emerging Challenges
US Macro and Equity Market US Housing: No Silver lining
Commodity Markets OPEC: Compliance Delays Any Further Cuts
Global Macro EU Members: Comrades-in-Calm
FOREX Market USD: The Usual Volatility or a Reversal in Trend
Global Equity Markets DSM: A Bold Move By the Government

Best regards,

NCB Economics Department

PO Box 3555 Jeddah 21481

Telephone: +9662646-3232    FAX: +9662644-9783

The National Commercial Bank

March 22 2009

NCB Weekly Views on Global, Regional and Local

Economic and Financial Developments

Throughout the current crisis, it had been apparent that the European Union had failed in adopting a coherent strategy to shore up the finances, and in turn, the economies of its members. The richer western European countries on 1 Mar had refused to extend help, through a broad based bailout plan, for eastern Europe, citing concerns about the

long-term fiscal sustainability. Even though the budget deficit would have increased from 2% in 2008 to 4% in 2009 (US -13%), Germany had seen the IMF as a more viable option for countries such as Hungry, Latvia and Romania.

However, with the IMF showing signs of strain from extending loans of around USD55 bn to these countries, EU leaders finally consented on 20 Mar to increase the limit on emergency lending to 11 EU countries. Although the new limit of USD68 bn is insignificant when compared with the USD1.48 trillion injected in the US economy, it will definitely provide a backstop for countries of smaller size. In our opinion, confidence and solidarity within the EU had been shaken even after the last decision, as the new EU-comers realize a lack of crisis management for the union.

EU Members: Comrades-in-Calm

Saudi Arabia Leading Economic Indicators

2008 Latest Period

Average WTI, Cushing 1M, USD/bbl 99.67 42.0 09YTD

Average 3M USD LIBOR 2.93% 1.25% 09YTD

Average 3M SAR SAIBOR 3.37% 1.40% 09YTD

Average Spread, in Basis Points, SAIBOR-LIBOR 44.2 14.6 09YTD

Y/Y Growth in Monetary Base (M0) -0.35% 17.49% Jan09

Y/Y Growth in Money Supply (M3) 17.6% 13.9% Jan09

Weighted Average Arabian Light, USD/bbl 94.8 41.6 09YTD

There is no doubt that the current financial crisis had affected so many industries on a global scale and that the negative ripple effects would have to weigh on the local market, albeit in a lesser tone. Currently, contractors are facing three new challenges.

First, several of the small and medium-size construction contractors are facing hardship in managing their cash flows. In particular, a few of the largest state owned entities (ARAMCO, SEC, SABIC, and Royal Commission for Jubail & Yanbu) have extended their payments’ schedules for contractors and suppliers from the previously applicable 30 days norms to 60 days norms. This has resulted in serious cash flow problems to contractors who need funds for their day-to-day operations.

Second, for the larger contractors in the water and power sectors, government has not injected cash into the state owned entities (SEC and SWCC), which has resulted in serious delays in payments. Finally, banks are rather cautious to provide credit to contractors and suppliers in light of the global financial turmoil and demand a higher quality for underling securities, which had increased the security coverage to the 150%-250% range in most cases and in a few cases up to 400%.

In our opinion, these factors are bottlenecks that if not rectified will impact the construction market on the medium-term.

Contractors’ Emerging Challenges

The Economics Department Research Team

Muhammad Y. Malick

Senior Economist

y.malick@alahli.com

Zulfiqar Bashir, PhD

Senior Economist

z.bashir@alahli.com

Perihan Al-Husseini

Senior Economist

p.alhusseini@alahli.com

Tamer El Zayat, PhD

Senior Economist

t.zayat@alahli.com

Majed A. Al-Ghalib

MIS Specialist

m.alghalib@alahli.com

Mohamad Jomaa

Economist

m.jomaa@alahli.com

Dana Nammari

Economist

d.nammari@alahli.com

Head of Research

Said A. Al Shaikh, PhD

Editor/Chief Economist

s.alshaikh@alahli.com

Sector Analysis/Saudi Arabia

Macroeconomic Analysis

Management Information System

NCB Market Review and Outlook- 22 Mar 2009‏

Noel Rotap (n.rotap@alahli.com)

Sun 3/22/09

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THE FOURTH ISLAMIC BANKS AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CONFERENCE

March 23, 2009 at 9:45 am | Posted in Arabs, Development, Economics, Financial, Globalization, Islam, Middle East, Research | Leave a comment

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The 4th Islamic Banks and Financial

Institutions Conference in Syria‏

sales@syria-report.com

www.alsalam.co.sy

Mon 3/23/09

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“PETROCHEMICAL ROUND UP”: SICO BAHRAIN

March 23, 2009 at 3:08 am | Posted in Arabs, Economics, Financial, Middle East, Oil & Gas, Research | Leave a comment

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22 MAR 2009

INVESTMENT RESEARCH DEPARTMENT

SICO’s Petrochemical Round Up – March 22, 2009‏

research@sicobahrain.com

Sun 3/22/09

Dear Reader,

Please find attached our bi-weekly research report, “Petrochemicals Round Up”, which provides an insight into one of the GCC region’s fastest growing and key industrial sectors – Petrochemicals. The  report covers:

  • A Weekly roundup of global and regional news for the petrochemical, fertilizer and steel industries, while highlighting company specific events, and the implications on the companies’ performance and valuations.

  • Commodity Prices – Including current prices and price trend over time.

  • Prices and margins movements for major petrochemical commodities and derivatives that are produced by GCC producers. Margins reflect the difference between the spot commodity price and prices of major feedstock.

  • Share price performance of GCC Petrochemical publicly listed producers relative to global peers, and respective indices.

  • Relative Valuation – Valuation of GCC Petrochemical producers relative to their global peers. Trends in the major tracked valuation metrics- PER and PBV for major companies.

  • Product Portfolio – Information on product lines of different producers. This will help investors/fund managers to relate change in prices of various commodities to individual companies.

  • Project Monitor – An update on status and costs of different petrochemical projects in the region.

We hope you will find this report of interest and relevance, and look forward to your views/comments on the same.

Investment Research Department
Securities & Investment Company(SICO)
Bahrain

Telephone: +973 17 515 000
Facsimile: +973 17 514 000
Brokerage: +973 17 515 200
research@sicobahrain.com
www.sicobahrain.com

Securities & Investment Company BSC (c) PO Box 1331 Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain
T: +973 17 515 000 F: +973 17 514 000
www.sicobahrain.com

Securities & Investment Company BSC (c)

PO Box 1331 Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain
T: +973 17 515 000 F: +973 17 514 000
www.sicobahrain.com

SICO’s Petrochemical Round Up – March 22, 2009‏

research@sicobahrain.com

Sun 3/22/09

Securities & Investment Company(SICO)
Bahrain

Securities & Investment Company BSC (c) PO Box 1331 Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain
T: +973 17 515 000 F: +973 17 514 000
www.sicobahrain.com

SICO’s Petrochemical Round Up – March 22, 2009‏

Securities & Investment Company(SICO) Bahrain

research@sicobahrain.com

www.sicobahrain.com

Sun 3/22/09

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GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC): GCC EQUITY MARKETS

March 23, 2009 at 2:38 am | Posted in Arabs, Economics, Financial, Middle East, Research | Leave a comment

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GCC Equity Markets Daily Briefing as

of 22.03.2009‏

KAMCO Research (research@kamconline.com)

Sun 3/22/09

We are pleased to attach the GCC Equity Markets Reports reviewing the daily performance of the 6 GCC equity markets.

In order to view the full reports of the corresponding markets please click on the link below:

Saudi Stock Exchange

Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange

Dubai Financial Market

Bahrain Stock Exchange

Doha Securities Market

Muscat Securities Market

Kind Regards,

Investment Research Department
Investment Advisory & Research Division

KIPCO Asset Management Co (KAMCO)
Tel: +965 1 805 885 Ext.1146, 1153
Fax:+965 2 2492395

Kamconline.com

KIPCO Asset Management Company K.S.C(Closed)

GCC Equity Markets Daily Briefing as of 22.03.2009‏

KAMCO Research (research@kamconline.com)

KAMCO Research

KIPCO Asset Management Co (KAMCO)

Sun 3/22/09

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