KONDRATIEFF WAVES & SCHUMPETER

February 5, 2008 at 11:21 pm | Posted in Books, Economics, Financial, Globalization, History, Research, Science & Technology, USA | Leave a comment

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KONDRATIEFF WAVES

KONDRATIEFF WAVES (or, for short, K-waves) may be defined as a pattern of regularity characteristic of structural change in the modern world economy. Some 60 years in length, it consists of an alternation of periods of high sectoral growth with others, start-up periods of slower growth. The study of this pattern helps to trace the evolution of the global economy, and aids in politico-economic prediction.

Contents

The Concept

Characteristics

Kondratieffs and War

Kondratieffs and Global Leadership

Evolutionary Explanation

Implications

Suggested Reading

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The Concept

Since the onset of the 20th century, students of the world economy have been drawing attention to certain long-term regularities in the behavior of the leading economies. The first to make this argument in a sustained manner was Nikolai Kondratieff (1984), a Russian economist writing in the 1920s. Statistical work on the behavior of prices, and some output series, for the United States and Britain since the 1790s, led him to conclude that the existence of long waves w as very probable, and his dating scheme is shown in Table 1. He saw the capitalist world economy as evolving and self-correcting and, by implication, he denied the notion of an approaching collapse of capitalism then current among Marxist economists.

In the 1930s, Joseph Schumpeter endorsed this concept, and named the pattern the Kondratieff, a name that has since been attached to this phenomenon, even as its existence remained in contention in the years after 1945. Neo-classical economists have remained wary of it, and it is only in the 1970s, as the post-World War II expansion slowed down once again that attention was drawn to it, and new research especially on innovation moved the subject forward in an important manner.

Characteristics

The emerging view now broadly characteristic of a significant body of scholarship (see in particular Rostow 1978, Van Duijn 1983, Freeman 1983, Berry 1991, Modelski and Thompson 1996) might be summarized as follows:

1. K-waves are attributes of the world economy and are more visible in international production data than in those of individual national economies. They are processes characteristic first of all of a lead national economy (such as that of the United States, or Britain in the 18-19th centuries) and of world trade in products and services of leading sectors, hence of the global economy.

2. K-waves concern output, rather than prices, and sectoral output surges and infrastructural investment in the world economy rather than the general macroeconomic performance (e.g. GNP growth) of national economies. They should not be sought for in the ups and downs of such indicators as gross domestic product and must be distinguished from shorter-term business cycles and fluctuations in the economic conditions of individual countries. However, high-growth periods for leading sectors tend to translate into general economic expansion and prosperity.

3. K-waves unfold as phased processes that imply S-shaped growth (or learning) curves, including for each particular sector, and over a period of some 50-60 years, a period of slow start-up, followed by fast growth, and ultimate leveling-off. That is why they are waves of economic activity, each wave different in kind from the last one, rather than cycles, seen as mechanical fluctuations in attainment of some uniform quantity. The start-up period of the next leading sector is also the period of flattening growth rates, declining profits, and severe competition for the previous lead industry; this transition between two leading sectors peak may be known as downswing, and takes the form of generalized slow-down and in the 1930s, of the Great Depression.

4. K-waves arise from the bunching of basic innovations that launch technological revolutions that in turn create leading industrial or commercial sectors. In Schumpeter’s classic formulation, such innovations concern new products, services, and methods of production, the opening of new markets and sources of raw materials, and the pioneering of new forms of business organization. In that sense, K-waves are caused by the demand for solutions to new problems, and the supply of such solutions by innovative firms. Each such wave therefore has its own individual innovative character, and can be named accordingly (consult Table 1 for such a listing).

5. K-waves have their own characteristic location in space and time. Britain’s cotton wave was centered on Manchester. The information K-wave is preferentially seen in such locations as Silicon Valley and Orange County in California. K-waves also have a clear location in time, and can be dated. There is no standard listing, but there is some agreement on the four or five most recent ones. Historians and world system theorists now extend such dating further into the past. Table 1 offers one recent scheme reaching all the way back to Sung China, and grounded in the argument that the origins of the contemporary global economy might be traced to that source one millennium ago. The dates shown next to each K-wave are for the hypothesized start-ups, and the transition period that follows, with the high growth peak reached only some 30-60 years later. All such dates must, of course, be regarded as approximate.

6. K-waves each have their own special character and specialization but each in its own way also changes the structure of the world economy; that is why a sequence of K-waves gives rise to structural transformations. Hall and Preston (1988) have shown that the three most recent K-waves (those that launched i.a. the telegraph and electric power, radio and electronics, and computers and the information industries) might jointly be seen as the carriers of the information revolution. Only in such an extended time-frame can truly long-term processes be properly observed.

Kondratieffs and War

Students of International Political Economy have had a long-standing interest in the relationship between K-waves and war. Indeed Kondratieff himself might be regarded as the originator of the hypothesized link between these two phenomena. In particular he observed that wars and revolutions were more likely to occur during what might be called the long start-up, or the transition period. A striking illustration was the Great Depression of the 1930s sandwiched between the two World Wars and between two K-wave peaks, of pre-1914 and post-1945 expansions.

In a thorough empirical study of that relationship in a long time frame Joshua Goldstein (1988) sees economic upswings associated with K-waves as increasing the probability of severe war. Brian Berry (1991) doubts such a connection, and is troubled by the notion of an inherent tendency to war in the global political system.

Kondratieffs and Global Leadership

Goldstein also recognizes but a loose connection between long economic waves, and the fortunes of major powers in the modern world. An alternative view (Modelski and Thompson 1996) argues for a much closer tie in the important structural relationship between K-waves and global leadership. For if the series of K-waves shown in Table 1 can be seen as the rise and decline of successive globally-significant lead industries, then that same table also shows that the series is tightly linked to a parallel (and structurally similar) process, the rise and decline of world powers, hence lasting change in world political arrangements. That latter process is often referred to as the hegemonic cycle, or as the long cycle of global politics.

While the precise conditions of that process remain a matter of debate, the existence of a succession of world powers in modern world politics is now taken for granted, and the similarities in the several approaches are now greater than the differences. All of the participants in that debate, including Robert Gilpin, Immanuel Wallerstein, and Paul Kennedy recognized the role of economic growth in that process (see discussion in Thompson 1988,Ch.2-3,6-8). We can also show that the world powers, that served as foci of world politics, accounted for the major proportion of economic innovations.

The left-hand column in Table 1 lists the powers that exercised global leadership (and contended with successive challenges from i.a. Spain, France, and Germany) in the past five hundred years; for the earlier era, it, too, starts with Sung China, and adds the two Italian republics, Genoa and Venice, that might be regarded as prototypical of later oceanic powers, at a time when the Mongols, and then Timur, held sway over Eurasia.

The rise of each such power is seen to be coordinate with K-waves in two ways: in space, in as much as each K-wave is largely located in the world power of that period, and in time, in as much as the timing of these two processes of change is synchronized. What is more, a lead economy, that succeeds in launching lead industrial sectors, is a necessary condition in attaining global leadership; in turn, attainment of global leadership creates the political framework of a global economic order.

In that way, each long cycle of global politics has been matched, in the experience of the modern world, by two Kondratieffs. The first of these serves to establish the necessary conditions for global leadership (as when the late 19th century industrial expansion in steel, chemistry, and electric power laid the foundation for the United States role in the 20th century) and the second is put in place as the result of that attainment of that leadership (as when the settlement of 1945 paved the way for the economic expansion of the post-war years, led by autos, oil, and electronics). The location of the (odd-numbered) K-wave therefore serves as leading indicator of next global leadership.

These considerations throw light on the question of endogenous and/or exogenous nature of these processes. At one level, the K-wave might be seen as an endogenously generated response to problems facing the world economy: basic innovations as responses to system problems, such as railroads as meeting the demands of a rising industrial economy. At the next level, though, as just shown, K-waves in turn determine, and are determined by, structural changes in world politics: they help determine the selection to global leadership, and they are determined by the political framework that leadership has established. In that sense, K-waves are exposed not to random shocks, as some economists have called wars, but to predictable influences that make them coordinate with global political change.

Evolutionary Explanation

The prominent explanation of K-waves relies on the role of basic innovations leading a succession of socio-technical paradigms. The drivers of that evolution are large and small firms, often fresh start-ups, that launch innovative products that are, or are not, selected by consumers/ buyers in the marketplace, and when selected, are diffused until they reach saturation in their respective markets. The selective pressure is that of markets, but these markets might include large buyers, such as governments whose demands, and research, can stimulate innovation. This economic process coevolves with the political one of rise and decline of world powers. This is a Kondratieff-Schumpeter type of explanation of the change in the global economy, and it might best be described as evolutionary.

Implications

The study of K-waves has predictive value because it helps to define the long-term development tendencies characteristic of the time and place. It is now quite widely agreed that the leading sectors of the late 1990s are the information industries (see also Hall and Preston 1988), and that the K-wave 19 is now about to move into higher gear, for a period likely to extend for some two-three decades. The United States seems to be on the leading edge in most segments of this large sector. If leadership in this, the 19th, K-wave is a leading indicator of future global leadership, then the United States is well positioned for it. Other countries prominent in the information industries, including Japan, are also well placed for future growth. Most generally, the lowering of the cost of information that results from this trend has a large positive impact on the world-wide spread of democracy.

Suggested Reading

Van Duijn, J.J. (1983) The Long Wave in Economic Life, London: George Allen and Unwin. A baseline for recent K-wave studies.

Kondratieff, Nikolas D. (1984) The Long Wave Cycle, (tr. Guy Daniels), New York: Richardson and Snyder. Kondratieff’s own basic text.

Rostow, Walt W. (1978) The World Economy: History and Prospect, Austin: University of Texas Press.

Freeman, Christopher (editor) (1983) Long Waves in the World Economy, London: Frances Pinter. A survey of recent research.

Kleinknecht, Alfred, Ernest Mandel and Immanuel Wallerstein (1992) New Findings in Long-Wave Research, New York: St. Martin’s. Another survey of recent work, includes Marxist approaches.

Hall, Peter and Paschal Preston (1988) The Carrier Wave: New Information Technology and the Geography of Information 1866-2003, London: Unwin Hyman.

Goldstein, Joshua (1991) Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age, New Haven: Yale University Press.

Thompson, William R. (1988) On Global War: Historical-Structural Approaches to World Politics, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.

Modelski, George and William R. Thompson (1996) Leading Sectors and World Powers: The Coevolution of Global Economics and Politics, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.

Berry, Brian (1991) Long-wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

—- George Modelski

QUARTERLY ENERGY UPDATE: DALLAS FED

February 5, 2008 at 10:30 pm | Posted in Economics, Financial, Globalization, Oil & Gas, Research, USA | Leave a comment

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Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Dallas Fed

Latest Quarterly Energy Update

Tue 2/05/08

Oil Prices Rise to Near-Record Levels, Then Fall

Quarterly Energy Update

January 2008

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

pubs@mail-list.com

on behalf of Dallas Fed Publications (dal.webmaster@dal.frb.org)

http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0801.cfm

Oil prices rose sharply in early January, with the benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil almost reaching the $100 barrier. Escalating tension in the Middle East, fears of disruptions in Nigeria, a further slippage in the U.S. dollar (in early January) and a growing realization that oil resource development will likely not match the growth in oil demand accounted for the upward pressure on oil prices.

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January 2008

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Tue 2/05/08

FOURTH LATERAN COUNCIL 1215: MODERNIZING INTOLERANCE

February 5, 2008 at 1:21 pm | Posted in Globalization, History, Islam, Judaica, Russia | Leave a comment

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Twelfth Ecumenical Council:

Lateran IV 1215

The Canons of the Fourth Lateran

Council, 1215

Fourth Council of the Lateran

Date 1215

Accepted by Catholicism

Previous council Third Council of the Lateran

Next council First Council of Lyon

Convoked by Pope Innocent III

Presided by Pope Innocent III

Attendance 71 patriarchs and metropolitans, 412 bishops, 900 abbots and priors

Topics of discussion Crusader States, Investiture Controversy

Documents and statements seventy papal decrees, transubstantiation, papal primacy, conduct of clergy, confession at least once a year, Fifth Crusade

Lateran and Laterano are the shared names of several architectural projects throughout Rome. The properties were once owned by the Lateranus family of the former Roman Empire. The Laterani lost their properties to Emperor Constantine who in turn gave it to the Catholic Church.

The most famous Lateran buildings are the Lateran Palace, once called the Palace of the Popes, and the Basilica of St. John Lateran, the cathedral of Rome, which although part of Italy is a property of the Holy See that has extra-territorial privileges as a result of the 1929 Lateran Treaty. As the official ecclesiastical seat of the Pope, St. John Lateran holds the Papal cathedra in its apse. The Lateran is Christendom’s earliest basilica, and is located on one of the 7 hills of Rome, the Caelian.

CANON 68

Summary.

Jews and Saracens of both sexes in every Christian province must be distinguished from the Christian by a difference of dress. On Passion Sunday and the last three days of Holy Week they may not appear in public.

 

CANON 1

 

Text: We firmly believe and openly confess that there is only one true God, eternal and immense, omnipotent, unchangeable, incomprehensible, and ineffable, Father, Son, and Holy Ghost; three Persons indeed but one essense, substance, or nature absolutely simple; the Father (proceeding) from no one, but the Son from the Father only, and the Holy Ghost equally from both, always without beginning and end. The Father begetting, the Son begotten, and the Holy Ghost proceeding; consubstantial and coequal, co-omnipotent and coeternal, the one principle of the universe, Creator of all things invisible and visible, spiritual and corporeal, who from the beginning of time and by His omnipotent power made from nothing creatures both spiritual and corporeal, angelic, namely, and mundane, and then human, as it were, common, composed of spirit and body. The devil and the other demons were indeed created by God good by nature but they became bad through themselves; man, however, sinned at the suggestion of the devil. This Holy Trinity in its common essense undivided and in personal properties divided, through Moses, the holy prophets, and other servants gave to the human race at the most opportune intervals of time the doctrine of salvation.

And finally, Jesus Christ, the only begotten Son of God made flesh by the entire Trinity, conceived with the co-operation of the Holy Ghost of Mary ever Virgin, made true man, composed of a rational soul and human flesh, one Person in two natures, pointed out more clearly the way of life. Who according to His divinity is immortal and impassable, according to His humanity was made passable and mortal, suffered on the cross for the salvation of the human race, and being dead descended into hell, rose from the dead, and ascended into heaven. But He descended in soul, arose in flesh, and ascended equally in both; He will come at the end of the world to judge the living and the dead and will render to the reprobate and to the elect according to their works. Who all shall rise with their own bodies which they now have that they may receive according to their merits, whether good or bad, the latter eternal punishment with the devil, the former eternal glory with Christ.

There is one Universal Church of the faithful, outside of which there is absolutely no salvation. In which there is the same priest and sacrifice, Jesus Christ, whose body and blood are truly contained in the sacrament of the altar under the forms of bread and wine; the bread being changed (transsubstantiatio) by divine power into the body, and the wine into the blood, so that to realize the mystery of unity we may receive of Him what He has received of us. And this sacrament no one can effect except the priest who has been duly ordained in accordance with the keys of the Church, which Jesus Christ Himself gave to the Apostles and their successors.

But the sacrament of baptism, which by the invocation of each Person of the Trinity, namely of the Father, Son, and Holy Ghost, is effected in water, duly conferred on children and adults in the form prescribed by the Church by anyone whatsoever, leads to salvation. And should anyone after the reception of baptism have fallen into sin, by true repentance he can always be restored. Not only virgins and those practicing chastity, but also those united in marriage, through the right faith and through works pleasing to God, can merit eternal salvation.

CANON 67

Summary. Jews should be compelled to make satisfaction for the tithes and offerings e churches, which the Christians supplied before their properties fell into of the Jews.

Text. The more the Christians are restrained from the practice of usury, the more are they oppressed in this matter by the treachery of the Jews, so that in a short time they exhaust the resources of the Christians. Wishing, therefore, in this matter to protect the Christians against cruel oppression by the Jews, we ordain in this decree that if in the future under any pretext Jews extort from Christians oppressive and immoderate interest, the partnership of the Christians shall be denied them till they have made suitable satisfaction for their excesses. The Christians also, every appeal being set aside, shall, if necessary, be compelled by ecclesiastical censure to abstain from all commercial intercourse with them. We command the princes not to be hostile to the Christians on this account, but rather to strive to hinder the Jews from practicing such excesses. Lastly, we decree that the Jews be compelled by the same punishment (avoidance of commercial intercourse) to make satisfaction for the tithes and offerings due to the churches, which the Christians were accustomed to supply from their houses and other possessions before these properties, under whatever title, fell into the hands of the Jews, that thus the churches may be safeguarded against loss.

CANON 68

Summary. Jews and Saracens of both sexes in every Christian province must be distinguished from the Christian by a difference of dress. On Passion Sunday and the last three days of Holy Week they may not appear in public.

Text: In some provinces a difference in dress distinguishes the Jews or Saracens from the Christians, but in certain others such a confusion has grown up that they cannot be distinguished by any difference. Thus it happens at times that through error Christians have relations with the women of Jews or Saracens, and Jews and Saracens with Christian women. Therefore, that they may not, under pretext of error of this sort, excuse themselves in the future for the excesses of such prohibited intercourse, we decree that such Jews and Saracens of both sexes in every Christian province and at all times shall be marked off in the eyes of the public from other peoples through the character of their dress. Particularly, since it may be read in the writings of Moses [Numbers 15:37-41], that this very law has been enjoined upon them.

Moreover, during the last three days before Easter and especially on Good Friday, they shall not go forth in public at all, for the reason that some of them on these very days, as we hear, do not blush to go forth better dressed and are not afraid to mock the Christians who maintain the memory of the most holy Passion by wearing signs of mourning.

This, however, we forbid most severely, that any one should presume at all to break forth in insult to the Redeemer. And since we ought not to ignore any insult to Him who blotted out our disgraceful deeds, we command that such impudent fellows be checked by the secular princes by imposing them proper punishment so that they shall not at all presume to blaspheme Him who was crucified for us.

[Note by Schroeder: In 581 the Synod of Macon enacted in canon 14 that from Thursday in Holy Week until Easter Sunday, .

Jews may not in accordance with a decision of King Childebert appear in the streets and in public places. Mansi, IX, 934; Hefele-Leclercq, 111, 204. In 1227 the Synod of Narbonne in canon 3 ruled: “That Jews may be distinguished from others, we decree and emphatically command that in the center of the breast (of their garments) they shall wear an oval badge, the measure of one finger in width and one half a palm in height. We forbid them moreover, to work publicly on Sundays and on festivals. And lest they scandalize Christians or be scandalized by Christians, we wish and ordain that during Holy Week they shall not leave their houses at all except in case of urgent necessity, and the prelates shall during that week especially have them guarded from vexation by the Christians.” Mansi, XXIII, 22; Hefele-Leclercq V 1453. Many decrees similar to these in content were issued by synods before and after this Lateran Council. Hefele-Leclercq, V and VI; Grayzel, The Church and the Jews in the XIlIth Century, Philadelphia, 1933.]

CANON 69

Summary. Jews are not to be given public offices. Anyone instrumental in doing this is to be punished. A Jewish official is to be denied all intercourse with Christians.

 

Text. Since it is absurd that a blasphemer of Christ exercise authority over Christians, we on account of the boldness of transgressors renew in this general council what the Synod of Toledo (589) wisely enacted in this matter, prohibiting Jews from being given preference in the matter of public offices, since in such capacity they are most troublesome to the Christians. But if anyone should commit such an office to them, let him, after previous warning, be restrained by such punishment as seems proper by the provincial synod which we command to be celebrated every year. The official, however, shall be denied the commercial and other intercourse of the Christians, till in the judgment of the bishop all that he acquired from the Christians from the time he assumed office be restored for the needs of the Christian poor, and the office that he irreverently assumed let him lose with shame. The same we extend also to pagans. [Mansi, IX, 995; Hefele-Leclercq, III, 7.27. This canon 14 of Toledo was frequently renewed.]

 

CANON 70

Summary. Jews who have received baptism are to be restrained by the prelates from returning to their former rite.

Text. Some (Jews), we understand, who voluntarily approached the waters of holy baptism, do not entirely cast off the old man that they may more perfectly put on the new one, because, retaining remnants of the former rite, they obscure by such a mixture the beauty of the Christian religion. But since it is written: “Accursed is the man that goeth on the two ways” (Ecclus. 2:14), and “a garment that is woven together of woolen and linen” (Deut. 22: ii) ought not to be put on, we decree that such persons be in every way restrained b the prelates from the observance of the former rite, that, having given themselves of their own free will to the Christian religion, salutary coercive action may preserve them in its observance, since not to know the way of the Lord is a lesser evil than to retrace one’s steps after it is known.

HOLY LAND DECREES

Summary. A series of decrees dealing with the preparation of a crusade to the Holy Land.

Text. Desiring with an ardent desire to liberate the Holy Land from the hands of the ungodly, we decree with the advice of prudent men who are fully familiar with the circumstances of the times, and with the approval of the council, that all who have taken the cross and have decided to cross the sea, hold themselves so prepared that they may, on June 1 of the year after next (1217), come together in the Kingdom of Sicily, some at Brundusium and others at Messana, where, God willing, we (the Pope) will be present personally to order and to bestow on the Christian army the divine and Apostolic blessing. Those who decide to make the journey by land, should strive to hold themselves prepared for the same time; for their aid and guidance we shall in the meantime appoint a competent legate a latere. Priests and other clerics who are with the Christian army, subjects as well as prelates, must be diligent in prayer and exhortation, teaching them (the crusaders) by word and example that they have always before their eyes the fear and love of God, lest they say or do something that might offend the majesty of the eternal King. And should any have fallen into sin, let them quickly rise again through true repentance, practicing humility both interiorly and exteriorly, observing moderation in food as well as in clothing, avoiding dissensions and emulations, and divesting themselves of all malice and ill will, that being thus fortified with spiritual and material arms, they may fight with greater success against the enemies of the faith, not indeed relying on their own strength but putting their trust in the power of God. To the clerics we grant for a period of three years as complete an enjoyment of their benefices as if they actually resided in them, and they may, if necessary, even give them as pledges during this time. Therefore, that this undertaking may not be impeded or retarded, we strictly command all prelates that each one in his own territory induce those who have laid aside the crusader’s cross to resume it, and carefully to admonish them and others who have taken the cross, as well as those who happen to be engaged for this purpose, to renew their vows to God, and if necessary to compel them by excommunication and interdict to abandon all delay.

Moreover, that nothing connected with the affairs of our Lord Jesus Christ be omitted, we wish and command that patriarchs, archbishops, bishops, abbots, and others who have the care of souls, diligently explain the meaning of the crusade to those committed to them, adjuring-through the Father, Son, and Holy Ghost, one, only true, and eternal God-kings, dukes, princes, marquises, counts, barons, and other prominent men, as well as cities, villages, and towns, that those who cannot go personally to the Holy Land, will furnish a suitable number of soldiers and, for a period of three years, in proportion to their resources, will bear the necessary expenses connected therewith for the remission of their sins, as we have made known in the general letters already sent over the world and as will be,exprcssed in greater detail below. In this remission we wish not only those to participate who for this purpose furnish their own ships, but those also who undertake to build ships. To those declining to render aid, if perchance any should be found to be so ungrateful to God, the Apostolic See firmly protests that on the last day they will be held to render an account to us in the presence of a terrible judge. Let them first consider with what security they can appear in the presence of the only begotten Son of God, Jesus Christ, into whose hands the Father has given all things, if in this matter they refuse to serve Him who was crucified for sinners, by whose favor they live, by whose benefits they are sustained, and by whose blood they were redeemed.

But, lest we should seem to place grave and unbearable burdens on the shoulders of the people, we ourselves (the Pope) donate to the cause what we have been able to save by strict economy, 30,000 pounds, besides a ship to convey the crusaders from Rome and vicinity and 3,000 marks silver, the remnant of alms received from the faithful. The remainder we have given to Albert patriarch of Jerusalem, and to the masters of the Temple and Hospital for the necessities of the Holy Land. With the approval of the council we further decree that absolutely all clerics, subjects as well as superiors, shall, in aid of the Holy Land and for a period of three years, pay into the hands of those appointed by the Apostolic See for this purpose, one twentieth part of ecclesiastical revenues; some religious orders only being excepted and those (clerics) also who take or already have taken the crusader’s cross and are about to set out personally. We and our brethren, the cardinals of the Holy Roman Church, will pay one-tenth of our revenues. All are bound to the faithful observance of this under penalty of excommunication, so that those who deliberately commit fraud in this matter will incur that penalty.

Since by the just judgment of the heavenly King it is only right that those who are associated with a good cause should enjoy a special privilege, we exempt the crusaders from collections, taxes, and other assessments. Their persons and possessions, after they have taken the cross, we take under the protection of Blessed Peter and our own, decreeing that they stand under the protection o f the archbishops, bishops, and all the prelates of the Church. Besides, special protectors will be appointed, and, till their return or till their death shall have been certified, they shall remain unmolested, and if anyone shall presume the contrary, let him be restrained by ecclesiastical censure.

In the case of crusaders who are bound under oath to pay interest, we command that their creditors be compelled to cancel the oath given and to cease exacting interest. Should any creditor force the payment of interest, we command that he be similarly forced to make restitution. We command also that Jews be compelled by the secular power to cancel interest, and, till they have done so, intercourse with them must be absolutely denied them by all Christians under penalty of excommunication. For those who cannot be their departure pay their debts to the Jews, the secular princes shall provide such a delay that from the time of their departure till their return or till their death is known, they shall not be embarrassed with the inconvenience of paying interest. If a Jew has received security (for example, a piece of ground) for such a debt, he must, after deducting his own expenses, pay to the owner the income from such security. Prelates who manifest negligence in obtaining justice for the crusaders and their servants, shall be subject to severe penalty.

Since the corsairs and pirates too vehemently impede assistance to the Holy Land by capturing and robbing those who go there and those returning, we excommunicate them and their principal abetters and protectors, forbidding under threat of anathema that anyone knowingly hold intercourse with them in any contract of buying and selling, and enjoin upon the rulers of cities and their localities that they check and turn them away from this iniquity. And since an unwillingness to disturb the perverse is nothing else than to favor them, and is also an indication of secret association with them on the part of those who do not resist manifest crime, we wish and command that severe ecclesiastical punishment be imposed by the prelates on their persons and lands. We excommunicate and anathematize, moreover, those false and ungodly Christians who furnish the enemies of Christ and the Christian people with arms, iron, and wood for the construction of ships; those also who sell them ships and who in the ships of the Saracens hold the post of pilot, or in any other way give them aid or advice to the detriment of the Holy Land; and we decree that their possessions be confiscated and they themselves become the slaves of their captors. We command that this sentence be publicly announced in all maritime cities on all Sundays and festival days, and that to such people the church be not opened till they return all that they have obtained in so reprehensible a traffic and give the same amount of their own -in aid of the Holy Land. In case they are not able to pay, then let them be punished in other ways, that by their chastisement others may be deterred from undertaking similar pursuits.

Furthermore, under penalty of anathema, we forbid all Christians for a period of four years to send their ships to Oriental countries, inhabited by the Saracens, in order that a greater number of ships may be available to those who wish to go to the aid of the Holy Land, and that to the Saracens may be denied the benefits that they usually reap from such commercial intercourse.

Though tournaments have been, under certain penalties, generally forbidden by different councils, since however at this time they are a serious obstacle to the success of the crusade, we strictly prohibit em under penalty of excommunication for a period of three years.

But, since for the success of this undertaking it is above all else necessary that princes and Christian people maintain peace among themselves, we decree with the advice of the holy council that for four years peace be observed in the whole Christian world, so that through the prelates discordant elements may be brought together in the fulness of peace, or at least to the strict observance of the truce. Those who refuse to acquiesce in this, are to be compelled by excommunication and interdict, unless the malice that inspired their wrongdoings was such that they ought not to enjoy such peace. But, if by chance they despise ecclesiastical censure, they have every reason to fear lest by the authority of the Church the secular power will be invoked against them as disturbers of the affairs of the One crucified.

We, therefore, by the mercy of the omnipotent God, trusting in the authority of the Blessed Apostles Peter and Paul, in virtue of that power of binding and loosing which God has conferred on us, though unworthy, grant to all who aid in this work personally and at their own expense, a full remission of their sins which they, have sincerely repented and orally confessed, and promise them when the just shall receive their reward an increase of eternal happiness. To those who do not personally go to the Holy Land, but at their own expense send there as many suitable men as their means will permit, and to those also who go personally but at the expense of others, we grant a full remission of their sins. Participants of this remission are, moreover, all who in proportion to their means contribute to the aid of the Holy Land, or in regard to what has been said give opportune advice and assistance. Finally, to all who in a spirit of piety aid in bringing to a successful issue this holy under. taking, this holy and general council imparts the benefits of its prayers and blessings that they may advance worthily to salvation. Amen.

http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/basis/lateran4.html

ISLAMIC HEDGE FUND GROWTH IN 2008

February 5, 2008 at 11:34 am | Posted in Economics, Financial, Globalization, Islam, Research | Leave a comment

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Tue 2/05/08

Deutsche Sees Islamic Hedge Fund Growth in 2008

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (Reuters)—Deutsche Bank’s regional head of Middle East structuring said he expects demand for hedge funds that comply with Muslim law to take off in the second half of 2008 as structures become more defined and credible fund managers and brokers set up to handle the products. The move would be the latest attempt to marry huge demand for Islamic investments with the returns on hedge funds. ……

Headlines from today: February 05, 2008

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Deutsche Sees Islamic Hedge Fund Growth in 2008

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (Reuters)—Deutsche Bank’s regional head of Middle East structuring said he expects demand for hedge funds that comply with Muslim law to take off in the second half of 2008 as structures become more defined and credible fund managers and brokers set up to handle the products. The move would be the latest attempt to marry huge demand for Islamic investments with the returns on hedge funds. ……

Complicating the Morality Play on Vulture Funds

LONDON (HedgeWorld.com)—The morality play version of the debate over debt relief for Africa is by now familiar. Here are photos of starving children. Who is to blame? Cue the sinister background music, cut to a photo of a Western fund manager who seeks to enforce judgments against the starving children’s sovereign nation. ……

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Froth Comes off Commodities

LONDON (Reuters)—Speculators fleeing commodities may skim some froth from markets, but fund managers say a tidal wave of institutional money heading towards the sector will ensure prices are firmly underpinned in the long term. The recent sell-off, mainly in industrial metals and energy markets, was triggered by worries about demand and economic growth in the United States, financial turmoil and selling to cover losses or margin calls in other markets. ……

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research section carries research reports from over 25 leading research providers.

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HedgeWorld is pleased to offer free full text articles on the global hedge fund industry, from over 4,000 publications from LexisNexis.

Sailfish denies ‘blowup’ rumors

February 2, 2008 Saturday

(The Stamford Advocate (Connecticut))

Investors must ask if insurance is a necessary protection or big swindle

February 2, 2008

(The Business)

The risks and rewards from the explosive growth in Sharia finance

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(The Business)

The Great Reckoning of 2008 requires humility from investors

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(The Business)

Baker departs public office after three decades of service

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(AllAboutAlpha.com)

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February 4, 2008 Monday 5:35 AM GMT

(Japan Economic Newswire)

Och-Ziff venture opens up Africa; Business News IN BRIEF

February 4, 2008 Monday

(The Independent (London))

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February 4, 2008 Monday

(Infovest21 News)

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February 4, 2008 Monday

(Infovest21 News)

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(Christian Science Monitor)

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(Birmingham Evening Mail)

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INNOVATIONS: BERKELEY ENGINEERING

February 5, 2008 at 12:59 am | Posted in Research, Science & Technology, USA | Leave a comment

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Innovations: Research & News

from Berkeley Engineering

Dean Shankar Sastry Dean_Sastry@coe.berkeley.edu

Feb 4, 2008

Innovations:

Research & News from Berkeley Engineering

lists@coe.berkeley.edu

Dean_Sastry@coe.berkeley.edu

Dear Friends of the College of Engineering,

When the governor speaks about our profession, we listen. In the run-up to his January state of the state address, Governor Schwarzenegger invoked some startling statistics about our engineering workforce and proposed a plan to fortify it.

According to the federal Labor and Workforce Development Agency, California will need an additional 20,000 to 24,000 engineers to meet the needs of the state’s aging infrastructure during the next 10 years. The shortfall in professional talent will be especially acute in civil, electronics, mechanical, aerospace and industrial engineering, due to an anticipated spurt in baby boomer retirements and ongoing economic growth.

The governor aims to beef up education at all levels—from steering greater numbers of young math and science students into engineering, to a new GI bill–type program to fast-track certification for engineering veterans—and establish an Engineering Education Council to attract private sector funding.

While details have yet to be worked out, both UC and the California State University system will have significant roles. Berkeley and the state’s other top engineering colleges are already turning away highly qualified students who could be making stellar contributions to our engineering workforce. Additionally, the COE has seen a large increase (15 %) in the number of applicants from last year. With the right level of resourcing, we would be very glad to take on more of this fine batch.

As the governor mentioned, California leads the nation in information technology, nanotechnology, biotechnology and clean technology. We have more members of the National Academy of Engineers, more winners of the Turing Award and other major international engineering awards, Nobel laureates, scientists and engineers than any other state. We are responsible for one of every four U.S. patents, one of every five U.S. technology jobs and nearly half of U.S. venture capital.

While much of this activity is centered around and originates from Berkeley, we cannot rest on these accomplishments. College administrators and faculty are now putting our heads together to determine how we can support a plan that is good for engineering, good for the state, and a critical investment in maintaining California’s technological excellence. I welcome your thoughts and ideas.

S. Shankar Sastry

Dean, College of Engineering

———————

Upcoming Events

February 21 BEARS ’08: Berkeley EECS Annual Research Symposium: EECS faculty answer your questions about the future of technology.

February 26 Berkeley Engineering Innovation Awards: Please join us for our 37th annual celebration of outstanding achievements by alumni in the field of engineering and technology. This year we honor Peter Norvig (EECS ’86), James Lau (Applied Mathematics and CS ’81) and Rula Deeb (CEE ’94, ’99).

March 7 2008 UC Berkeley Energy Symposium: Leadership at the Nexus of Science, Policy, & Business.

———————

INNOVATIONS: RESEARCH & NEWS FROM

BERKELEY ENGINEERING

Volume 2, Issue 2

February 2008

Read the full version of Innovations at:

http://innovations.coe.berkeley.edu

In this issue:

Hard-Hitting Research

A Passion for Clean

Students Grab Gold with Bacteria-to-Blood Project

HARD-HITTING RESEARCH

For 10 years, mechanical engineering professor Dennis Lieu moonlighted as an instructor in the martial art of taekwondo. Concerned about safety, he began testing commercial martial arts headgear that had become standard and required for competitions. His results were startling: many of the helmets failed his tests and would not prevent injuries. His continued research has produced the first technical standard for martial arts protective headgear.

Full story: http://innovations.coe.berkeley.edu/vol2-issue2-feb08/hardhittingresearch

A PASSION FOR CLEAN

Rula Deeb (CEE M.S.’94, Ph.D.’99), a senior associate at the environmental consulting firm Malcolm Pirnie in Emeryville, has helped water utilities, government agencies, industries and others cope with pollution in wastewater treatment plants and groundwater basins stretching from California to Tennessee. She specializes in bioremediation, a process that deploys naturally occurring microorganisms to attack and degrade hazardous contaminants.

Full story: http://innovations.coe.berkeley.edu/vol2-issue2-feb08/passionforclean

STUDENTS GRAB GOLD WITH

BACTERIA-TO-BLOOD PROJECT

A team of Cal undergraduates has demonstrated how genetically modified E. coli bacteria might be converted into a cheap—and safe—blood substitute. The engineered product, called “Bactoblood,” addresses a global shortage of human blood for transfusions, particularly in developing countries and emergency situations, the young developers say.

Full story: http://innovations.coe.berkeley.edu/vol2-issue2-feb08/bactoblood

———————

Innovations is published online by the Marketing and Communications Office of the UC Berkeley College of Engineering.

The Innovations mission is to illuminate groundbreaking research at the College of Engineering that will dramatically change our lives tomorrow.

Media contact: Teresa Moore, Innovations Editor,

Executive Director of Marketing and Communications, tcmoore@eecs.berkeley.edu

Writers: Paul Spinrad, Abby Cohn, Patti Meagher

Web Manager: Susanna Spiro

Web Developer: Aleksandr Vladimirskiy

send comments to the Engineering Marketing and Communications Office:

innovations@coe.berkeley.edu

Innovations:

Research & News from Berkeley Engineering

Dean Shankar Sastry

Dean_Sastry@coe.berkeley.edu

Feb 4, 2008


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