RIYAD BANK: SAUDI TADWAUL INDEX

November 4, 2006 at 3:11 pm | Posted in Arabs, Economics, Financial, Globalization, Islam, Middle East, Research | Leave a comment

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<b>Riyad Bank Weekly Economic Briefing</b>

Riyad Bank Weekly Economic Briefing

Saudi Tadwaul index

Saudi Market Alert

With compliments. This week’s commentary, "What’s Real in
the Dubai Real Estate Market" takes a look at the strengths and key drivers of the
Dubai real estate market’s stupendous rise in the past three years.
Next week, we
will look at the weaknesses in the market and what it means for Saudi investors.

Saudi Market Alert:

The Saudi Tadwaul index
dropped 534 points today, one of the biggest daily point drops ever. Coming after five
days of triple-digit drops, this is beginning to shape up to be a second correction (or
crash, if you want) in the Saudi stock market this year. The Tadawul index has been set
back to where it was in mid-February 2005. Nine companies hit the 10% daily trading limit
(meaning that the drop would have been greater if the limit wasn’t there), and 43
companies dropped by over 9%. The biggest losers today included Al Rajhi, Al Bilad, SARCO,
Gas&Industrialization, and Qassim cement. Notab;y, the market dropped to a low of
8,613 before a "last-minute" push raised it to 8,793. Potential for further
drops exist over the coming days, although, it offers opportunities for bottom-fishers to
step in.

Khan H. Zahid, Ph.D.

Chief Economist and Vice President

Riyad Bank

P.O. Box 22622

Riyadh 11416, Saudi Arabia

Tel: (966-1) 401-3030 x. 2534

Fax: (966-1) 401-3030 x. 2159

Email:
khan.zahid@riyadbank.com

Riyad Bank Weekly Economic Briefing

Attachments: WEB20061104.pdf
Size: 113958 bytes.

Khan Zahid khan.zahid@riyadbank.com

Sat, 4 Nov 2006

WORLD WAR II: INTELLIGENCE

November 4, 2006 at 6:44 am | Posted in History, Military, Science & Technology | Leave a comment

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Operation Alsos

Operation Alsos was an effort at the end of World War II by the Allies
(principally Britain and the United States), branched off from the Manhattan Project, to investigate the German nuclear energy project, seize German nuclear resources, materials and personnel to further American research and to prevent their capture by the Soviets, and to discern how far the Germans had gone towards creating an atomic bomb. The personnel of the project followed close behind the front lines, first into Italy, and then into France and Germany, searching for
personnel, records, material, and sites involved.

Alsos is sometimes mistakenly written ALSOS by sources including the U.S. Army, perhaps because it does not look like a usual English word and is thus falsely assumed to be an acronym. In fact, Alsos is Greek for “grove”, and so this designation is a play on the name of Major General Leslie M. Groves, the military director of the Manhattan Engineering District (the Manhattan Project), the Allied wartime effort to develop an atomic bomb (which itself was sparked out of fears of a German weapon). Groves was the major impetus behind the project, in part because of his desire to make sure that German technology and personnel did not fall into Soviet hands, so as to prolong the
anticipated American monopoly on nuclear weapons as long as possible.

Samuel Goudsmit was the technical/scientific leader of Alsos, and Lt. Col. Boris Pash, a former Manhattan Project security officer, was its military leader. Major League baseball player, attorney, and linguist, Moe Berg contributed in various phases.

The project managed to find and remove many of the German research effort’s personnel and a substantial portion of the surviving records and equipment. Most of the senior research personnel (including Werner Heisenberg, Otto Hahn, and Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker) were sequestered at Farm Hall in England for several months, as part of Operation Epsilon. Their discussions were secretly recorded, and transcripts of those tapes have been released.

In the end, Operation Alsos concluded that the Allies had surpassed the entire German atomic bomb effort by 1942. Compared to the Manhattan Project, one of the largest scientific endeavors of all time, the German project was considerably underfunded and understaffed, and it is questionable whether Germany would have had the resources or concentrated research attention which the Allies used to produce such a weapon.

Goudsmit, in a monograph published two years after the end of the war, further concluded that a principal reason for the failure of the German project was that science could not flourish under totalitarianism — an argument many think adequately rebutted by German advances in other realms, such as one of the world’s first operational jet fighters (Messerschmitt Me 262) and the first ballistic missile (V-2), as well as the Soviet Union‘s development of a nuclear weapon by 1949. The Soviets benefited from their extensive spy networks, which included at least two well-informed scientists at Los Alamos: Klaus Fuchs and Theodore Hall. Both worked to prevent the United States from holding a nuclear monopoly over the world.

Goudsmit is said to have made the statement regarding totalitarianism under “instructions” to support and clear Heisenberg, who personified the new pro-western German scientific order. After Heisenberg’s death Goudsmit revised his statement, claiming that Heisenberg was always working to finish off what he has started, which contrasts with the impression the German project came to a halt through politics.
Other German scientists who worked with Heisenberg supported this view and denied Heisenberg’s claims.

See also

Further reading

  • Jeremy Bernstein and David Cassidy, Hitler’s Uranium Club: The Secret Recordings at Farm Hall, 2001.
  • Charles Frank, ed. Operation Epsilon: the Farm Hall transcripts, 1993.
  • David Irving, Virus House, 1967. (see Irving link for discussion of Irving’s reliability as an historian).
  • Samuel Goudsmit, Alsos: the failure of German science, 1947.
  • Mahoney, Leo J. A History of the War Department Scientific Intelligence Mission
    (ALSOS), 1943 – 1945.
    [Ph.D. Dissertation, Kent State University, 1981]
  • Pash, Boris. The Alsos Mission. New York: Charter Books, 1969.
  • Thomas Powers, Heisenberg’s War: The Secret History of the German Bomb, 2000.
    Powers makes an inferential case that the German effort was, essentially, sabotaged by scientific foot-dragging, perhaps especially by Heisenberg.
  • Paul Lawrence Rose, Heisenberg and the Nazi Atomic Bomb Project: A Study in German Culture (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1998), ISBN 0-529-21977-8.
  • Mark Walker, German National Socialism and the quest for nuclear power, 1939 –1949, 1990.

30th Assault Unit

The 30 Assault Unit (aka 30 Commando, 30AU, and “Ian Fleming‘s Red Indians”) was a British multiservice combat unit in World War II that collected technical intelligence on German forces during amphibious landings. More specifically, the main operational role of the unit was to move ahead of Allied forces, or to undertake covert infiltrations into enemy territory by any means necessary, to capture intelligence in the form of documents; cipher, radio and radar equipment; weapons and personnel. The unit often worked closely with the Intelligence Corps’ Field Security Operations.

In September 1942 the Director of Naval Intelligence, Rear Admiral John Godfrey, authorized Ian Fleming‘s idea for the creation of the Special Intelligence Unit, composed of 33 Troop (Royal Marines), 34 Troop (British Army), 35 Troop (Royal Air Force) and 36 Troop (Royal Navy). The Special Intelligence Unit was later renamed 30 Commando (Special Engineering Unit), and subsequently redesignated the 30 Assault Unit in December 1943. They first saw action during Operation Torch in November 1942.

The unit subsequently participated in Pantelleria, Sicily, Italy, and elsewhere in the Mediterranean, as well as in Norway from 1942-43. During Operation Husky the unit was able to get a complete set of Italian Air Force ciphers for homing beacons, enabling Allied warplanes to fly to targets in northern Italy guided by Italian navigation beacons.

The British had learned that the German have themselves intelligence units similar to 30AU. In 1941 a German unit was able to seize important documents from the abandoned British headquarters in Athens, Greece when that city was captured.

The 30 Assault Unit returned to Britain in November 1943
in preparation for the Normandy landings the following year. However the 15th Army Group requested the unit’s Army component to return to Italy for operations there.
Thus only the Naval and Royal Marine component participated in the D-Day landings in June 1944, as WOOLFORCE and PIKEFORCE who’s target was to capture and collect technical intelligence at a German coastal radar station at Douvres-la-Délivrande and later fought their way into Cherbourg. In July 1944, the unit served in Rennes and Brest, and followed Free French Forces into Paris, France during the liberation of the city in August. By May 1945, Royal Marines from the unit had captured the German naval base in Bremen. After the end of the war in Europe a Royal Marine detachment from the unit was sent to the Pacific Theater of Operations for intelligence operations against the Japanese, but the Surrender of Japan in August precluded many of its planned operations.

The 30 Assault Unit was finally disbanded in 1946.

See also:

Operation Alsos and the 30 Assault Unit

YAPI KREDI BANK: INFLATION IN TURKEY

November 4, 2006 at 2:32 am | Posted in Economics, Financial, Globalization, History, Middle East, Research | Leave a comment

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Yapi Kredi Bank

Phone: +90-212-339 71 25

Fax: +90-212-339 61 03

YKB Economic Agenda:

AN ANALYSIS OF OCTOBER

INFLATION DATA

INFLATION DEVELOPMENTS: OCTOBER 2006

Friday, November 3, 2006

In October, consumer prices (CPI) rose by 1.27%, while the producer prices (PPI) increased by 0.45%. As a result, the annual inflation based on the CPI fell to 9.98% in October from 10.55% the previous month, while the annual PPI inflation dropped to 10.94% from 11.19% during this period.

In terms of the CPI, two sectors are especially worth to note: food and beverages, as well as clothing and footwear sectors. Inflation in food and beverages sector, which remained quite high so far in 2006 and hence put a considerable pressure on the overall CPI inflation, was only 0.76% in October despite the fact that this was the Ramadan period. This has been the main reason behind the lower than expected CPI inflation in October. Meanwhile, the 9.67% monthly increase in the clothing and footwear prices was also quite surprising, however on the opposite direction. Although inflation in this sector was expected to be high last month due to seasonal factors, the increase was still too high, probably as a result of increased demand prior to the Ramadan holiday. In fact, this has been the highest October inflation in this category since 2003. As a result, the contribution of the increase in clothing and footwear prices on the overall CPI inflation has been as high as 0.8 percentage points.

There is a few more factors worth to mention in terms of the CPI. Inflation in most of the services sectors, to which the Central Bank has been pointing out as a major risk to the disinflation process, remained quite high in October. Namely, inflation in the housing; entertainment and culture; and restaurants and hotels categories were 1.29%, 1.49% and 1.21% respectively. The respective annual inflation in these sectors stand as high as 13.44%, 8.68% and 14.01% as of October. On the other hand, the decline in international oil and commodity prices was effective in limiting the overall CPI inflation. More precisely, prices in the transportation sector rose by only 0.08% thanks to the decline in oil prices, whereas prices in other goods and services declined by 0.06% thanks to the decline in gold prices.

Meanwhile, the positive effects coming from declining oil and commodity prices in the international markets can be observed in the PPI more clearly, as it has been the case since August. In fact, inflation in mining sector has been -2.94% while inflation in the manufacturing industry was -0.07% thanks to the 7.13% price decline in coke and refined petroleum products. The 0.41% decline in agricultural prices also helped to reduce the PPI inflation in October. The only reason behind the positive PPI inflation last month seems to be the 11.97% increase in the electricity, gas and water prices, which in turn was a result of the hike in electricity distribution prices.

SELECTED INFLATION FIGURES

October
2006

(monthly % change)

October
2006 (annual % change)

CONSUMER PRICES (CPI)

1.27

9.98

Food and non-alcoholic
beverages

0.76

10.81

Alcoholic beverages and
tobacco

0.01

10.21

Clothing and footwear

9.67

2.12

Housing, water,
electricity, gas and other

1.29

13.44

Transport

0.08

8.96

PRODUCER PRICES (PPI)

0.45

10.94

Agriculture

-0.41

7.75

Manufacturing Industry

-0.07

9.93

Mining

-2.94

9.66

Electricity, gas, water

11.97

37.78

Please find attached the Economic Agenda prepared by the Strategic Planning and
Research Department of YKB, analyzing the inflation data for October.

Best regards

Suzi Apalaçi

Senior Economist, Strategic Planning and Research

Yapi Kredi Bank

Phone: +90-212-339 71 25

Fax: +90-212-339 61 03

YKB Economic Agenda: An analysis of October inflation data

Attachment: ea_inflation_031106.doc
(0.17 MB)

SUZÝ APALAÇÝ DAYAN suzi.apalaci@yapikredi.com.tr

suzi.apalaci@yapikredi.com.tr

SUZÝ APALAÇÝ DAYAN

Friday, November 3, 2006


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