October 10, 2006 at 8:31 pm | Posted in Economics, Financial, Globalization, History, Research | Leave a comment




Ronald Lee

Professor Ronald D. Lee

CEDA Chair

University of California, Berkeley


Chu, C.Y. and Ronald Lee (2006) “The co-evolution of intergenerational transfers and longevity: an optimal life history approach. Theoretical Population Biology.

Volume 69. Issue 2. March 2006. Pp. 193-201.

(This paper will become available through PubMed

12 months after publication date.)

Lee, Ronald, Sang-Hyop Lee and Andrew Mason. Charting the Economic Life Cycle. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 12379. (abstract and link to pdf)

Li, Nan and Ronald Lee (2005) Coherent mortality
forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter method
, Demography. 42:3, August 2005, pp 575-594.

Li, Nan, Ronald Lee and Shripad Tuljapurkar (2004) Using the
Lee-Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data
, International Statistical Review 72:1:19-36.

Lee, Ronald (2004) Reflections on Inverse
Projection: Its Origins, Development, Extensions, and Relation to Forecasting
, in J. Vaulpel, E. Barbi, S. Bertino, E. Sonnio, eds., Inverse Projection Techniques: Old and New Approaches, from Demographic Research Monographs, a series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, J. Vaupel, Editor-in-Chief

Lee, Ronald (2004) Quantifying Our
Ignorance: Stochastic Forecasts of Population and Public Budgets
, paper prepared for the Rand Summer Institute Gala Celebration for the NIA Centers for the Demography and Economics of Aging.

(Word .doc file)

Lee, Ronald, Timothy Miller, and Michael Anderson (2004) Stochastic infinite horizon forcasts for Social Security and related studies. NBER Working Paper 10917

(.pdf file)

Lee, Ronald (2003) Age Structure and Dependency, in Encyclopedia
of Population
, Paul Demeny, Geoffrey McNicoll, eds. (New York: Macmillan Reference USA), pp. 542-545.

Lee, Ronald (2003) Interage Transfers, in Encyclopedia
of Population
, Paul Demeny, Geoffrey McNicoll, eds. (New York: Macmillan Reference USA), pp. 24-28.

Lee, Ronald, Michael Anderson, and Shripad Tuljapurkar (2003) Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund, a report for the Social Security Administration, January 31, 2003.

Lee, Ronald, Timothy Miller, and Ryan Douglas Edwards (2003) SPECIAL REPORT: The Growth and Aging of California’s Population: Demographic and Fiscal Projections,

Characteristics and Service Needs, Technical Assistance Program, California Policy

Research Center, University of California. (Acrobat .pdf file)

Zhang, Jie, Junsen Zhang, and Ronald Lee (2003) Rising longevity,

education, savings, and growth Journal of Development Economics 70, pp. 83-101.

(Acrobat .pdf file)

Lee, Ronald and Hishashi Yamagata (2003) Sustainable Social

Security: What Would It Cost?, National Tax Journal, v. 56, n. 1, part 1, pp.

27-43. (Acrobat pdf file)

Ronald Lee (2003) Demographic

Change, Welfare, and Intergenerational Transfers: A Global Overview, Genus, v.

LIX, No. 3-4, pp. 43-70, July-December 2003.

Ronald Lee (2003) Mortality

Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends, paper prepared for a meeting on mortality

forecasts, for the Swedish National Insurance Board, Lund, Sweden, September 4, 2002.

Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller (2002) Saving, Wealth,

and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The cases of Taiwan and

the United States, The Swedish Journal of Economics, v. 105, No. 3, pp.

339-357. (Acrobat .pdf file)

Lee, Ronald (2002) Report for the Roundtable

Discussion of the Mortality Assumption for the Social Security Trustees,, presentation

given in Washington D.C. at the Meeting of the Social Security Trustees on September 13,


Lee, Ronald (2002) Demographic Change, Welfare, and

Intergenerational Transfers: A Global Overview, paper prepared for the Third

Rencontres Sauvy, Villa Mondragone, Frascati, Rome, Italy, September 19-21.

Lee, Ronald and Ryan Edwards (2001) The Fiscal Impact of
Population Aging in the US: Assessing the Uncertainties
, James Poterba, ed., Tax

Policy and Economy, v. 16 (NBER: MIT Press, 2002), pp. 141-181. (Acrobat .pdf file)

Lee, Ronald (2001) Predicting Human

Longevity a letter to the editor of Science, 292:1654-1655 (June 1), in
response to Olshansky, Carnes, and Desesquelles “Prespects for Human Longevity. (Acrobat .pdf file)

Lee, Ronald and Ryan Edwards (2001) The Fiscal Impact of

Population Change in Jane Sneddon Little and Robert K. Triest, eds., Seismic Shifts: The Economic Impact of Demographic Change. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston conference Series No. 46, pp. 220-237. (Acrobat.pdf file)

Lee, Ronald and Timothy Miller (2001) Evaluating the
Performance of the Lee-Carter Approach to Modeling and Forecasting Mortaliy

Demography, v. 38, n. 4 (November, 2001) pp. 537-549.

Lee, Ronald (2001) The Fiscal Impact of Population Aging
testimony prepared for the U.S. Senate Budget Meeting, February 7, 2001 in Washington D.C. (Acrobat.pdf file)

Lee, Ronald and Michael Anderson (2001) Malthus in State Space:
Macro Economic-Demographic Relations in English History, 1540 to 1870
, Journal of Population Economics, v.15, n.2. pp. 195-220. (Acrobat.pdf file)

Lee, Ronald (2001) The Decline of Formal and Aggregate
Analysis: Demography Abandons Its Core
(Acrobat.pdf file)

Lee, Ronald and Valentine Villa (2000) Population Aging
in California
, working paper of the California Policy Research Center, University of California.

Lee, Ronald and Shripad Tuljapurkar (2000) Population Forecasting
for Fiscal Planning: Issues and Innovations
, in Alan Auerbach and Ronald Lee, eds., Demography and Fiscal Policy (Cambridge University Press). (Acrobat .pdf)

Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and Timothy Miller (2000) Life

Cycle Saving and the Demographic Transition in East Asia, in Andrew Mason, ed., Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized

(Stanford: Stanford University Press), pp. 155-184.. (Acrobat .pdf file)

Life Cycle Saving and the Demographic Transition in
East Asia — Graphs (Acrobat .pdf file)
by Ronald Lee

Bommier, Antoine and Ronald Lee (2000) Overlapping Generations
Models with Realistic Demography
Journal of Population Economics, 16:1:135-160.

Lee, Ronald (2000) A Cross-Cultural Perspective on
Intergenerational Transfers and the Economic Life Cycle
, in Andrew Mason and Georges

Tapinos, eds., Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations (Oxford University Press, Oxford), pp.17-56.

Lee, Ronald and Shridad Tuljapurkar (1997) Death and Taxes: How
Longer Life Will Affect Social Security
Demography v.34 n.1 (February) pp.67-82.

Lee, Ronald (1997) History of Demography in the U.S. Since 1945,
in Jean-Claude Chasteland and Louis Roussel, eds., Les Contours de la Demographie qu seuil du XXIe Siecle (Istitut National d’Etudes Demographiques, Presses Universitaires de France), pp.31-56.


Mailing Address:

University of California, Berkeley

Department of Demography

2232 Piedmont Ave.

Berkeley, CA 94720-2120

Phone #: (510) 642-4535

Fall Office Hours: Wednesday 2-4



(downloadable recent papers)

Research Interests:Professor

Ronald Lee holds an M.A. in Demography from the University of California, Berkeley, and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University. He spent a postdoctoral year at the National
Institute of Demographic Studies (INED, France). After teaching for eight years at the University of Michigan in the Economics Department and working at the Populations Studies Center, he joined Demography at Berkeley in 1979, with a joint appointment in Economics.

He currently holds the Edward G. and Nancy S. Jordan Endowed Chair in Economics. He has

taught courses here in economic demography, population theory, population and economic

development, demographic forecasting, population aging, indirect estimation, and research

design, as well as a number of pro-seminars. Honors include Presidency of the Population

Association of America, the Mindel C. Sheps Award for research in Mathematical Demography,

the PAA Irene B. Taeuber Award for outstanding contributions in the field of demography.

He is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Association for

the Advancement of Science, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a Corresponding

member of the British Academy. He has chaired the population and social science study

section for NIH and the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Population, and served

on the National Advisory Committee on Aging (NIA Council). Professor Lee is also the

Director of the Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging at U.C. Berkeley, funded

by the National Institute of Aging. His current research includes including modeling and

forecasting demographic time series, the evolutionary theory of life histories, population

aging, Social Security, and intergenerational transfers. He enjoys tennis and hiking.


  • Demography/Economics C175: Introduction to Economic Demography (
  • syllabus, Spring 2006 )

    How do economic changes affect marriage, divorce, and child bearing decisions? How does

    immigration to the US affect the ethnic composition of the population, the earnings of

    native workers, taxes on natives, and the macro-economy? What causes the aging of

    populations, and how will population aging affect the economies of industrial nations, and

    in particular, pension programs like Social Security? What accounts for the rise in

    women’s participation in the wage labor force over the past century? How are family

    composition and poverty interrelated? Does rapid population growth slow economic

    development in Third World countries?

  • Course: Tues/Thurs 2-3:30, F295 Haas. (Spring 2006)
  • Office Hours:
  • Demography/Economics

    C175 CourseWeb Course Description

  • Demography 236/Economics C275B: Aging – Economic and Demographic Aspects (
  • syllabus, Spring 2006)

    Population aging is a global phenomenon which is

    currently most pronounced in industrial nations. This course will

    cover economic and demographic aspects of population aging, retirement behavior, pension

    problems, health and disability of the elderly, intergenerational transfers, and savings

    and wealth in aging populations, and data sets for aging research.

  • Course:
  • Office Hours:
  • Demography

    236 CourseWeb Course Description

  • Demography

    236 WebCT Welcome Page

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