Cambridge Forecast Group Blog

Climate science and the Indian scientist –

CSE News Bulletin [August 10, 2007]

Thursday, August 9, 2007

=============================

CSE's Fortnightly News Bulletin

[August 10, 2007]

Address: 41, Tughlakabad Institutional Area, New Delhi - 110062

Centre for Science and Environment

=============================

An e-bulletin from CSE, India, to our network of friends and professionals interested in environmental issues. Scroll to the bottom of this page for information on how to unsubscribe.

INSIDE:

- Editorial: Climate science and the Indian scientist
- Webcast: CSE director Sunita Narain speaks on climate change at the UN General Assembly
- Cover Story: Rising popularity of artificial vanilla puts Kerala farmers in distress
- News: Sulphur deficiency in Madhya Pradesh soil leads to poor harvest
- News: Dow Chemical asked to clean up contaminated spots in the US
- News: Meghalaya limestone quarries closed
- Feature: Cherrapunjee: Now a wet desert
- Science: First Indian study on species discovery pattern
- Gobar Times Green Schools Awards 2007
- Training programmes at AAGC
- CSE speaks: Bus crisis a result of mismanaged mobility
- Questionnaire: Rate your pollution control board
- Job openings: Designers needed for Down To Earth magazine

=================================

Editorial: Climate science and the Indian scientist

=================================

By Sunita Narain

Will Indian scientists measure up to the challenge of climate change? I ask this question because of the nature of the science as well as the nature of our scientists.

Climate change science is young, being tutored and evolving. We know much more today about what the future will hold if we do not reduce emissions drastically. Yet our knowledge is still probabilistic. It concerns changes we can model for climate sensitivity, using the best evidence we have today. But all models are victims of their assumptions. And all predictions are villains of their times. The challenge is that even if we know little about how the accumulation of greenhouse gases will impact us, we cannot afford to wait until we have all the answers. We can't afford to be uncertain in our actions, even if we are uncertain about our science.

Take glaciers. We know that glaciers melt. It is because of this melt that we get water. But are these glaciers melting at an unnatural pace today? Will such melting lead to more water in our rivers to begin with, leading to floods, and then less, leading to water scarcity? The answers, after much scientific skulduggery, are just beginning to crystallise.

Western scientists agree that something is afoot. They know because they can physically map the glaciers to see the pace of the recession. They can also measure the mass-average ice thickness-to check for reduction. In addition, complex statistical models-which combine evidence from several observational datasets-are confirming the probability of this rapid recession.

These models had initially not predicted that melt water would seep into the crevices of the glaciers, lubricate them and so accelerate melting. When this was physically noticed, it was factored into the models for greater reliability. But there are many unanswered questions. For instance, will there be a collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet? There are huge uncertainties regarding critical thresholds of collapse. But in all this, uncertain science cannot afford to breed complacency. It has to reveal what it knows, with what measure of reliability and also discuss what it does not know, as yet, because of its own limitations of data or understanding. It is growing, but after all, it is a young science.

In India, we are just beginning to map impacts on our glaciers because of human-induced climate change. We can draw inferences from the changes that are being observed and predicted in the rest of the world. But we will have to do our own leg work-to understand both what is happening and what the receding glaciers will do to our water security. The question is: can we do this?

I ask this because in many ways climate change science, because of its many variables and very many scenarios, is a game of chess which can only be played by investigative and highly inquisitive minds. The scientist will get clues and the answers will have to be tweaked: from scientific evidence, from plain common sense and from what can be observed in the real world.

It is not in the nature of our science to do this kind of imaginative, investigative research. It is certainly not in the manner of our science to draw inferences when there is uncertainty. In the easiest of times, our scientists find it against their nature to cross over the threshold, from what is already established science to what is emerging science. They prefer to play safe with what they know. In the case of climate science, they prefer to be cautious in their words, very conservative in their assessment and take refuge in the inherent uncertainty of science.

For instance, it will be easy for 'safe' science to say that even if glaciers are receding at a rapid pace, it is nothing new or surprising. They are simply passing through a phase of recession as a natural cyclic process. It will also be possible to say (and I have heard this said very recently) that even if we know glaciers are melting, there is no evidence to say that this melt will lead to any significant changes in our hydrological systems. Why? Because our ongoing research does not show anything deviant. It is another matter that the data or method used for the research might be insufficient. Or that the scientist may not have investigated the slim leads that nature was disclosing about herself.

Let's accept that there is a problem. The Indian scientific establishment has been for far too long just that, an establishment. It has chosen only to work with established science that is peer-reviewed, empirical and unchallenged. Worse, because of the nature of its institutions-which are closed to outsiders on the one hand but subservient to officialdom on the other-it will not engage in any public discourse.

But climate science demands new approaches. It demands breaking away from what is already known to discover what needs to be known and how. It will require crossing the line so that inferences can be drawn, however tentative. It will require, most of all, active engagement with the 'outside' world of ordinary people. It will need to pay careful heed to everyday events and meticulous observation of scientific processes as they play out in our gardens, in our agricultural fields and in our glaciers.

Finally, if I can say (without offence), Indian science, to respond to climate change, will have to get a little less male and perhaps even a little less old. 'Male' science (if we can allow for some generalisation) is not interested in soft issues like the environment or nature. These are non-issues in a world of nuclear, space or rocket technologies. Why young? Because climate change science (and the world) needs all the impatience and the desperation of the young.

Read editorial online
www.downtoearth.org.in/cover_nl.asp?mode=2

To comment, write to
editor@downtoearth.org.in

===============================

Webcast: CSE director speaks on climate change at the UN General Assembly

===============================

CSE Director Sunita Narain recently spoke on 'Climate change as a global challenge' at the UN General Assembly in New York.

To watch the webcast of the debate, click here >>
http://webcast.un.org/ramgen/ga/61/ga070731am.rm

Watch the press conference >>
http://webcast.un.org/ramgen/pressconference/pc070731.rm

===============================

Cover Story: Rising popularity of artificial vanilla puts Kerala farmers in distress

===============================

Vanilla, the world's most popular flavour, is associated with all things nice. However, this is a view that most vanilla farmers in India, especially the ones in Kerala, will disagree with. Once a profitable venture, cultivation of vanilla has been declining rapidly in Kerala. The crop, farmers say, is labour-intensive, and takes time to flower. The seeds take even longer to cure. Manual pollination of the vanilla flowers makes the cultivation more cumbersome. Add to this a highly volatile international market, and you have a recipe for disaster. But what has been worrying farmers most is the widespread use of synthetic vanillin -- an artificial extract, which has copied the smell and flavour of vanilla -- in food, beverages and cosmetics. Artificial vanillin is harvested from effluent of paper mills and coal tar, and is much cheaper than the real vanilla extract. Clearly, vanilla farmers need the government's support. Will the state deliver?

Read online
www.downtoearth.org.in/cover_nl.asp?mode=1

=================================

More in Down To Earth magazine

=================================

News: Sulphur deficiency in Madhya Pradesh soil leads to poor harvest

Farmers in Madhya Pradesh have been grappling with a poor harvest this season. According to experts, the low output has been triggered by a mild to severe sulphur deficiency in the soil. Over the decades, the intensive farming method of rotational cropping has depleted sulphur in the soil. This has been topped by the excessive use of sulphur-free fertilisers like urea, and by little or no replenishment of sulphur in the soil. To check the trend, the state government has made available sulphur-rich fertilisers, and is promoting its use. It is also training farmers on the use of nutrient-rich fertilisers and related farming practices.

Read complete article
www.downtoearth.org.in/cover_nl.asp?mode=3

----------------------------------

News: Dow Chemical asked to clean up contaminated spots in the US

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has asked Dow Chemical to clean up three dioxide contaminated spots located along almost 10 km downstream of its plant in Midland, Michigan, by the Tittabawassee river. Dow has operated the plant for numerous years and manufactured a number of chemicals and pesticides there. Numerous studies have confirmed the presence of dioxin in the soil and water of the area. According to experts, the spots need to be cleaned urgently as they are prone to erosion and floods, which can spread the contamination further.

Read online
www.downtoearth.org.in/cover_nl.asp?mode=4

----------------------------------

News: Meghalaya limestone quarries closed

French MNC Lafarge's limestone quarries in Shella-Nongtrai in Meghalaya's East Khasi Hills district have been shut down by the government. The quarries were supplying raw material to Lafarge Surma Cement in Chhatak, Bangladesh. The closure comes a year after an MoEF official found out that the mining lease area was forestland, and that environmental consultants and a local forest official had given false information about the nature of the land to ensure clearance of the project. Read online >>
www.downtoearth.org.in/cover_nl.asp?mode=5

----------------------------------

Feature: Cherrapunjee: Now a wet desert

For many years Cherrapunjee (now Sohra), Meghalaya, was considered the wettest place on earth. Not anymore. Rainfall has been declining rapidly in the last couple of years due to rampant deforestation. Sohra is a wet desert now. With no trees or reservoirs to hold it back, rainwater runs down the mountains. Sohra faces acute water shortage, especially during winter. People have to walk miles to collect drinking water. To make matters worse, the rain washes away the top soil, hampering farming and reforestation efforts. As a result, people have started working as daily labourers in mines and lime kilns. Can Sohra ever go back to the good old days?

Read online >>
http://www.downtoearth.org.in/full6.asp?foldername=20070815&filename=news&sec_id=50&sid=17

----------------------------------

Science: First Indian study on species discovery pattern

A team of Indian researchers has classified the patterns of species discovery of eight important animal and plant groups in the Western Ghats. The study will help scientists strategise the species discovery process in the country, and fix the groups of species to be explored.

Read online
http://www.downtoearth.org.in/full6.asp?foldername=20070815&filename=sci&sec_id=12&sid=2

===============================

Gobar Times Green Schools Awards 2007

===============================

Entries are now open for the second Gobar Times Green Schools Awards to be held in New Delhi later this year. The awards -- given by CSE annually -- acknowledge the most environmentally responsible schools of the country. The winners are judged on the basis of the self-assessment of environmental practices carried out by schools.

The awards hold a commitment towards continuously improving environmental management in schools.

Date: Monday, December 17, 2007

Venue: Stein Auditorium, India Habitat Centre,
Lodhi Road, New Delhi-110003

For more information
http://www.cseindia.org/programme/eeu/gsp_award2007.htm

Read latest Gobar Times cover story 'Death by drowning'
http://www.gobartimes.org/20070731/gt_covfeature.asp

=================================

Training programmes at AAGC

=================================

CSE's Anil Agarwal Green Centre (AAGC) seeks to make knowledge investments in society through education and training programmes. Courses help participants better understand issues that lie at the interface of environment and development policy, science, technology, poverty, democracy and equity.

1. Agenda for survival: Two-month certificate course on policies, politics and practices of environmental management in India
(October 23-December 14, 2007)

The two-month certificate course for students and young professionals will -- through lectures, readings, debates, weekly outings, reportage and a five-day field tour to rural India -- explore the complexities underlying the environment-development debate in the country. Several fellowships are available to support students.

Register online
http://www.cseindia.org/aagc/index.htm

For more information contact:
Aditya Batra <aagc@cseindia.org

----------------------------------

2. Training programme for students: Urban Rainwater Harvesting
(September 24-27, 2007)

This popular course is open for students of architecture and planning, engineering and environmental studies.

For more information
http://www.cseindia.org/misc/rwh_coursesept07.htm

----------------------------------

3. Understanding EIA: From screening to decision making
(September 24-28, 2007)

This programme empowers communities, industry representatives and regulators with tools and technical know-how to actively scrutinise and participate in the environmental clearance processes of industrial projects.

Apply online
http://www.cseindia.org/programme/industry/eia/eia_form.htm

----------------------------------

4. City water and waste management: Alternative paradigms
(October 16-19, 2007)

The unique workshop will discuss the urgent need to switch from the current paradigm of capital, water and material intensive processes of waste management to a more cost effective, non-sewerage paradigm of human waste disposal.

For more information
http://www.cseindia.org/misc/wastemanagement.htm

===============================

CSE speaks: Bus crisis a result of mismanaged mobility

===============================

The current bus crisis in Delhi is symptomatic of a policy failure to recognise the role of buses in making cities clean and liveable, says CSE. The situation can be improved if the institutional and management systems of the bus service are restructured, bus numbers are augmented, dedicated bus corridors are built, tax policies related to transport are reviewed and buses are integrated with other public and mass transportation systems like the metro. Read more >>
http://www.cseindia.org/AboutUs/press_releases/press_20070726.htm

=================================

Questionnaire: Rate your pollution control board

=================================

India's economic development is causing severe environmental problems. To make matters worse, the country's long-standing policies,
regulations and regulatory institutions, which control environmental pollution and natural resource degradation, are proving to be ineffective.

Keeping this in mind, CSE has launched a research project, 'Rate your pollution control board', which seeks to identify strengths, weaknesses and gaps in the country's existing environmental regulatory regime.

We request all industries and civil society members who work or interact with pollution control boards to share their views and experiences with us by filling a questionnaire.

Fill online questionnaire
http://www.cseindia.org/programme/industry/questionnair.htm

==============================

Job openings: Designers needed for Down To Earth magazine

==============================

CSE needs designers/senior designers for Down To Earth magazine. Candidates should be adept at transforming hardcore research information into friendly packages, and must be familiar with QuarkXpress and Photoshop. Should also be comfortable working in a Macintosh environment. Work experience of atleast three years is a must.

E-mail resume to cseindiajobs@gmail.com

==============================

About this e-mail

===============================

CSE is an independent, public interest organisation that was established in 1982 by Anil Agarwal, a pioneer of India's environmental movement. CSE's mandate is to research, communicate and promote sustainable development with equity, participation and democracy.
Contact CSE: http://www.cseindia.org/aboutus/feedback.htm
E-mail: <cse@cseindia.org>
Privacy policy: http://www.cseindia.org/misc/privacy.htm
Address: 41, Tughlakabad Institutional Area, New Delhi - 110062

Tell us if you know a colleague or friend who might enjoy this newsletter

Centre for Science and Environment

Please add csewhatsnew@lists.csenews.org to your address book so that this newsletter doesn't get filtered or tossed into your bulk folder.

For comments reply to feedback@cseindia.org

Climate science and the Indian scientist – CSE News Bulletin[August 10, 2007]

Thursday, August 9, 2007

feedback@cseindia.org

csewhatsnew@lists.csenews.org